Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Temporary Help Services Data Indicate Good Non-Farm Payroll Numbers

Notwithstanding the difficulties in Europe and how that is likely to affect growth going forward, I think that Friday's payroll numbers could give pretty decent numbers.

First of all, let's look at the current trend of private non-farm payrolls (net monthly change)...

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnnual
200021893338217-12021418333224-1921494
2001-47-10-69-328-81-236-173-193-268-358-343-207
2002-154-160-65-97-7810-92-61-12113-14-163
200345-156-198-3422-41-23515514941113
200415831300224310944210115133028131
20059423114634614226427518981100304138
200629829927215332771581215727188169
200718679213651274215-109-14659723
2008-12-85-58-161-253-230-257-347-456-547-734-667
2009-806-707-744-649-334-452-297-215-186-26275-83
201016621582415161117143107(P)159(P)
P : preliminary

source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


and note that the current recovery looks pretty much on track with previous recoveries. Although the amount of employment needed to claw back that lost in 2008 is still signifcantly high.

Similarly, Temporary Help Services has been on the way up recently, indicating that firms will be under pressure to make some permanent hiring...


2006
2614.8
2628.5
2635.1
2633.6
2655.1
2651.2
2647.8
2659.7
2641.9
2638.0
2638.9
2649.6

2007
2642.7
2641.3
2642.5
2629.2
2615.7
2606.3
2592.9
2576.4
2538.9
2570.5
2565.5
2557.0

2008
2545.7
2515.7
2489.4
2470.8
2439.3
2403.9
2366.7
2315.6
2270.4
2208.3
2116.9
2054.3

2009
1982.0
1932.5
1871.2
1805.3
1792.4
1758.1
1749.3
1733.6
1724.4
1766.6
1861.3
1911.0

2010
1960.2
1996.1
2028.4
2051.7
2082.1
2100.7
2094.0
2116.5
2140.3(P)
2175.2(P)






source:Bureau of Labor Statistics

 Especially as average weekly hours worked numbers are doing ok


Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2006


34.5
34.5
34.5
34.7
34.5
34.4
34.5
34.5
34.5
34.8

2007
34.5
34.5
34.6
34.7
34.7
34.7
34.6
34.5
34.6
34.5
34.6
34.7

2008
34.5
34.5
34.7
34.6
34.6
34.6
34.5
34.4
34.4
34.4
34.3
34.2

2009
34.2
34.1
34.0
33.9
33.9
33.8
33.8
33.8
33.8
33.7
33.9
33.8

2010
34.0
33.9
34.0
34.1
34.2
34.1
34.2
34.3
34.2(P)
34.3(P)




source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

This data is confirmed if we look at the American Staffing Association Staffing Index. These numbers are interesting because they usually predict a pick up in permanent hiring, a few months later..


Week endingASA Staffing Index (Set at 100 on 6/12/2006)Week endingASA Staffing Index (Set at 100 on 6/12/2006)
14/11/201010006/06/201089
07/11/201010030/05/201089
31/10/201010023/05/201090
24/10/201010116/05/201089
17/10/201010009/05/201088
10/10/201010002/05/201088
03/10/201010025/04/201087
26/09/201010018/04/201086
19/09/20109811/04/201084
12/09/20109604/04/201084
05/09/20109628/03/201084
29/08/20109721/03/201084
22/08/20109514/03/201083
15/08/20109507/03/201082
08/08/20109328/02/201082
01/08/20109421/02/201081
25/07/20109214/02/201080
18/07/20109107/02/201079
11/07/20108831/01/201080
04/07/20109024/01/201079
27/06/20109117/01/201079
20/06/20109110/01/201078
13/06/20109003/01/201069
source: American Staffing Association



 Furthermore, the recent ISM employment numbers have been good too. All of which, suggests that we are set for a decent payroll number on Friday.

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