Temporary Help Services Data Indicate Good Non-Farm Payroll Numbers

Notwithstanding the difficulties in Europe and how that is likely to affect growth going forward, I think that Friday's payroll numbers could give pretty decent numbers.

First of all, let's look at the current trend of private non-farm payrolls (net monthly change)...

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2000	218	93	338	217	-120	214	183	33	224	-19	214	94
2001	-47	-10	-69	-328	-81	-236	-173	-193	-268	-358	-343	-207
2002	-154	-160	-65	-97	-78	10	-92	-61	-12	113	-14	-163
2003	45	-156	-198	-34	22	-41	-2	35	155	149	41	113
2004	158	31	300	224	310	94	42	101	151	330	28	131
2005	94	231	146	346	142	264	275	189	81	100	304	138
2006	298	299	272	153	32	77	158	121	57	27	188	169
2007	186	79	213	65	127	42	15	-109	-14	65	97	23
2008	-12	-85	-58	-161	-253	-230	-257	-347	-456	-547	-734	-667
2009	-806	-707	-744	-649	-334	-452	-297	-215	-186	-262	75	-83
2010	16	62	158	241	51	61	117	143	107(P)	159(P)
P : preliminary

source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


and note that the current recovery looks pretty much on track with previous recoveries. Although the amount of employment needed to claw back that lost in 2008 is still signifcantly high.

Similarly, Temporary Help Services has been on the way up recently, indicating that firms will be under pressure to make some permanent hiring...

2006	2614.8	2628.5	2635.1	2633.6	2655.1	2651.2	2647.8	2659.7	2641.9	2638.0	2638.9	2649.6
2007	2642.7	2641.3	2642.5	2629.2	2615.7	2606.3	2592.9	2576.4	2538.9	2570.5	2565.5	2557.0
2008	2545.7	2515.7	2489.4	2470.8	2439.3	2403.9	2366.7	2315.6	2270.4	2208.3	2116.9	2054.3
2009	1982.0	1932.5	1871.2	1805.3	1792.4	1758.1	1749.3	1733.6	1724.4	1766.6	1861.3	1911.0
2010	1960.2	1996.1	2028.4	2051.7	2082.1	2100.7	2094.0	2116.5	2140.3(P)	2175.2(P)



source:Bureau of Labor Statistics

 Especially as average weekly hours worked numbers are doing ok

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2006			34.5	34.5	34.5	34.7	34.5	34.4	34.5	34.5	34.5	34.8
2007	34.5	34.5	34.6	34.7	34.7	34.7	34.6	34.5	34.6	34.5	34.6	34.7
2008	34.5	34.5	34.7	34.6	34.6	34.6	34.5	34.4	34.4	34.4	34.3	34.2
2009	34.2	34.1	34.0	33.9	33.9	33.8	33.8	33.8	33.8	33.7	33.9	33.8
2010	34.0	33.9	34.0	34.1	34.2	34.1	34.2	34.3	34.2(P)	34.3(P)

source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

This data is confirmed if we look at the American Staffing Association Staffing Index. These numbers are interesting because they usually predict a pick up in permanent hiring, a few months later..

Week ending	ASA Staffing Index (Set at 100 on 6/12/2006)		Week ending	ASA Staffing Index (Set at 100 on 6/12/2006)
14/11/2010	100		06/06/2010	89
07/11/2010	100		30/05/2010	89
31/10/2010	100		23/05/2010	90
24/10/2010	101		16/05/2010	89
17/10/2010	100		09/05/2010	88
10/10/2010	100		02/05/2010	88
03/10/2010	100		25/04/2010	87
26/09/2010	100		18/04/2010	86
19/09/2010	98		11/04/2010	84
12/09/2010	96		04/04/2010	84
05/09/2010	96		28/03/2010	84
29/08/2010	97		21/03/2010	84
22/08/2010	95		14/03/2010	83
15/08/2010	95		07/03/2010	82
08/08/2010	93		28/02/2010	82
01/08/2010	94		21/02/2010	81
25/07/2010	92		14/02/2010	80
18/07/2010	91		07/02/2010	79
11/07/2010	88		31/01/2010	80
04/07/2010	90		24/01/2010	79
27/06/2010	91		17/01/2010	79
20/06/2010	91		10/01/2010	78
13/06/2010	90		03/01/2010	69

source: American Staffing Association



 Furthermore, the recent ISM employment numbers have been good too. All of which, suggests that we are set for a decent payroll number on Friday.