Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Banking Stress Indicators Are Still Elevated

This week, most economic commentators are focusing on the prospects of QE3 and, on the positive news regarding the abating of some of the peripheral Eurozone bond yields. Indeed, equity markets have rallied somewhat and it appears that the World is feeling a little better about prospects.  However, are all the economic indicators pointing in the same direction? Is it time to buy back into equities?

The suspicion is that, right now, this isn’t a widespread ‘risk on’ trade and, the market badly needs this. Sentiment needs to turn around with regards the sustainability of Italian and Spanish bond yields or there will be further turmoil ahead. The recent statements by Merkel regarding rejecting Eurobonds as the immediate answer and in rejecting expansion of the EFSF have actually upped the ante and downside risk is considerable. What is the market telling us?

Firstly, the ECB has been successful in reducing Spanish and Italian bond yields…

 One-Year Chart for SPANISH GOVERNMENT GENERIC BONDS - 10 YR NOTE (GSPG10YR:IND)One-Year Chart for Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield (GBTPGR10:IND)

…but unfortunately, this is only on an absolute level. It certainly hasn’t stopped investors piling into the ‘safe havens’ of Gilts, Bunds and US Treasuries. This is important because it indicates that investor sentiment hasn’t really turned round, its just that the ECB has managed to manipulate the bonds markets for a while. For example, the spread between German and Italian bond yields hasn’t come down much after the ECB action…

 One-Year Chart for ITALY 10 - GERMANY 10 SPREAD (.ITAGER10:IND)

…moreover, other indicators of banking stress are still looking elevated. Looking at the 3 month Libor-OIS spread chart…

 One-Year Chart for 3 MO LIBOR - OIS SPREAD (.LOIS3:IND)

…and the good ol’ chart of the TED spread….

One-Year Chart for TED Spread (.TEDSP:IND)

…and what about a chart of the PIIGS CDS prices…

 One-Year Chart for PIIGS (.GIPSI:IND)

…. 3 month Euribor chart itself….

 One-Year Chart for Euribor 3 Month (EUR003M:IND)

The EUR/USD swap...
One-Year Chart for EUR BASIS SWAP      3 MO (EUBSC:IND)

5 Year Euro Swaps...

One-Year Chart for EUR SWAP SPREAD     5 YR (EUSS5:IND)

..and recourse to the ECB deposit facility

One-Year Chart for ECB Eurozone Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility (ECBLDEPO:IND)

This is definitely not a ‘risk on’ marketplace yet and these indicators are showing stress.  Well worth keeping an eye on.

No comments:

Post a Comment