Recent Data Weak But The Economy is Still On Track

The markets have been concerned over the state of the economy recently. The double whammy of a set of weaker Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports and disappointing payrolls numbers have had the the bears coming out. Although the direction of the market is not really my concern – I’m market neutral -- the direction of the economy is of great interest. There is more reason to be bullish than bearish on the economy. If you are one of those investors that thinks stocks go up with the economy, then now is not the time to lose your nerve.

Now payrolls?

It doesn’t take much to get television journalists shouting, and the last decade has given them more than their fair share of things to worry about. The fact that this fragile psyche also exists in the corporate world shouldn’t really surprise anyone. Discerning investors need to adopt a calmer perspective.

I’m going to start with non-farm payrolls. The key point to understand is just how volatile these numbers are. Moreover, they are subject to significant revisions. In fact, it is rather bizarre that the most followed dataset in the US economy is also one of the most unreliable. I blame Alan Greenspan because he would always refer to it as being the best indicator. This article expresses some of the general underlying issues. The truth is that the payrolls data is usually unreliable from point to point. It is much more useful to take a longer term view.

For example, here are three month averages for the total non-farm payrolls taken from the Bureau of Labor Studies.

There is nothing really unusual about mini troughs and peaks, but overall job growth is still strong. It hasn’t been strong enough to fully gain back the jobs lost in 2008-2009, but that is another matter. We are discussing the direction of the economy.

Furthermore, a quick look at the American Staffing Association Index shows that the index is currently stronger than it has been for over five years.

On a micro level, Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI) always gives good color on conditions. In the company's latest set of earnings, Europe was declared as remaining weak, but its US staffing branches were reported as seeing good demand, particularly in technology and accounting. However, it also stated that the share of temporary jobs (as opposed to permanent) in this cycle was double that of previous recoveries. This may be great news for Robert Half, but it also goes a long way to explaining the sense of ease that is reported over employment conditions in the US.

ISM-ism

The tendency is to look at the ISM data on a monthly basis and then put it out of context. The recent numbers were superficially disappointing, but I think they represented more of a natural correction than any kind of trend change.

Here is the manufacturing data from the Institute of Supply Management for new orders, employment and the headline PMI data.

Note how periods of political uncertainty cause a temporary slowing of orders, which then snaps back as the pipeline build-up gets cleared, following which there is a natural mini correction. I would argue that we are in a period like that now (which has been exacerbated by the sequester), but history suggests that the economy will keep growing -- albeit at the slow pace it has been in recent years.

Investors also need to appreciate that any number above 50 for the index indicates growth. Furthermore, the employment index (it is much harder to turn off employment plans than it is to go slow on new orders or inventory) is still rising well in 2013.

On the micro level, the short-term weakness in the ISM data in December was picked up in the reporting of something like MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE: MSM). Its end demand lacks visibility and is subject to sudden short term changes. Indeed, it reported that its markets were in near ‘paralysis’ in December, and this mirrors the temporary weakness in the ISM data. Furthermore its commentary in its recent results revealed a bifurcation within the metalworking sector. Aerospace and autos are doing fine but general industrial engineering is still soft, with customers delaying activity. Nevertheless if the stock sells off aggressively I think it could be worth a look. Its sales are subject to short lead teams, and if you think the ISM data will improve then this will eventually feed through into MSC's numbers.

Moreover, if we look at General Electric’s (NYSE: GE) recent set of earnings, the surprise was on the upside. Of course, its revenues are a lot more internationally focused than MSC’s will be and its strength in the quarter is an indication that the temporary weakness was really about the US and political considerations, rather than any kind of global drop off in manufacturing. The interesting thing about GE is that--although we know there is pressure on global public spending--it is exposed to areas of government spending (emerging market health care, utilities, transportation etc) that are still being invested in. If the recent results confirm this then the stock is worth a look.

The bottom line

I don’t think the recent data is any cause for significant concern unless it is confirmed by another few months weakness. Short term thinking never did anyone any favors in investing, and the underlying trends for the US economy remain positive. Looking out for stocks that might get beat up with undue short term pessimism seems a good approach to me.

Why It Is Best To Avoid Glamour Stocks

This article is going to give you a great piece of investment advice, and not in the sense that it is going to give you any buy or sell ideas over a stock. In any case any serious private investor shouldn’t be making investment decisions solely based on the words of a journalist, broker or finance adviser. It’s all well and good to take advice, but the key is to do your own research and make your own decisions.

There Are More Things in Heaven and Earth

And there are more ways to do this rather than invest in Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). You should know this. Your broker should know this. Your advisor should know this. In short everyone should know this. Well if that is the case why does an inordinate amount of discussion take place over the stock? The answer is simple. It’s probably the best known brand in the world and everybody has an opinion on the iPhone. Herein lies the problem. The stock attracts a huge amount investor recognition, and both private and professional investors seem obsessed with trading this stock. That’s just the way it is. You can analyze the company to death but the direction of the share price is more about sentiment over the iPhone’s future market share than it is about the current fundamentals. Its stock price seems to be a kind of vote over the iPhone.

Of course if you have strong views on the subject then go ahead and invest, but if you don’t then stay away because this stock invariably attracts hot money. Whatever you do, don’t buy or sell this because you feel obliged to have an opinion on it.

Icahn vs. Ackman, Who Will Win?

The battle over Herbalife (NYSE: HLF) has fascinated commentators and investors, and for good reason. The story invokes our love of the thrill of a high stakes game between two individuals driven by a mutual dislike. Ackman holds a conference to outline the reasons behind his very aggressive short position. Icahn later buys the stock and very publicly lambasts Ackman claiming that Herbalife could be the mother of all short squeezes. The fact that all of this is being played out so publicly tells you all you need to know.

These guys are surely trying to influence other investors to join in this game. And a game it is. This isn’t so much about the underlying fundamentals as about who is going to get the most investor votes and force the other to climb down.Who really knows what will happen and how this will play out, so why get involved in this game? It’s a lot of fun to discuss and debate the ongoing developments, but this is not the kind of situation that serious investors should be involved in.

My Advice?

My idea is simple. Call your broker or investment adviser, ask about these two stocks and if he spends half an hour gushing over them with trading advice and exhortations to take a position then politely close the phone and start thinking about finding a new adviser.

Investing is hard. It requires a relentless commitment to research and a disciplined and methodological approach. Unfortunately these aspects of investing are far too easy for private investors and professionals to discard. Private investors are encumbered by a lack of time but for professional investors there is no such excuse. It’s all too easy for professionals to focus on glamour stocks or the most popularly discussed situations. They bring instant recognition and they get their investors talking and trading. Moreover investors expect their advisers and fund managers to ‘have a view’ because to not do so would be to be out of the ‘smart money’ loop. When will this nonsense stop? When will investors stop handing over money on to advisers on the back of their opinions on one or two glamour stocks?

 The Law of Small Numbers

The nonsense doesn’t stop there. Consider the law of small numbers or the understanding that a larger sample of data gives a more accurate measure of performance than a smaller set. This is the reason why the number of patients goes up with later stage clinical trials. Pharmaceutical companies generate much more accurate data with later stage trials, and approval decisions are based on them and not on early stage data with a relatively small sample. With this in mind, why do investors trust fund managers on the back of their performance over one year or with a data point of one?

Two classic examples of this tendency are the hedge fund managers Andy Zaky and John Paulson. The former achieved fame and investment funds due to his analysis of one stock. No prizes for guessing it was Apple! And no bonus for working out that Zaky went on to lose investors significant sums of money as outlined in this article. As for Paulson, he achieved fame and investment thanks to his outstanding performance during the recent financial crisis. While this deserves applause, it still does not represent a long term track record of performance; but that didn’t stop investors giving him huge sums of money. The result is that he has had a lousy couple of years, and Morgan Stanley is now reported as telling its clients to redeem their investments.

The Bottom Line

The moral of the story is to avoid highly popular story stocks or short term records with limited data to back up an investor's performance. Investing is a hard grind and it requires a lot of hard work. It is easy for the investment industry to focus on high profile stocks and applaud and promote themselves on the back of a good year or two, but serious investors should not allow themselves to get seduced into investing with them.