Wednesday, July 13, 2011

The Errors at the Heart of the EU?





Essentially what we are seeing in Europe now, is a retesting of three contentious ideas which are at the core of the Euro zone project. The first of these philosophical underpinnings is the idea (from Hegel) that the ultimate reality of an individual can be supplanted by the state. The second is that the primary motive behind an individual’s behaviour (Marx) is economic. The third is that the state and political policy can, and should, be used to alter culture. The latter idea is at the heart of much of Neo-conservative thinking. You set a raft of metrics (deficit ratios, debt/GDP etc) and suddenly the Greeks becoming inflation avoiding, fiscally responsible, austerity accepting Germans.  

In other words putting, these three ideas together, monetary and fiscal union are seen as possible because individuals and countries interests can be subsumed to a ‘European’ super state. Furthermore, since the salient motivations are economic, any issues can be resolved by monetary support. These ideas are particularly attractive because they are imbued in the scientific rationalist tradition of European enlightenment thought. In addition, they allow a continent that had been at war for centuries to pretend that cultural or military conflicts can be easily resolved by closer political integration.

Unfortunately, these ideas have largely been proved not to work over the last century or so. The irony of the creation of the Euro just as the Soviet Union was breaking up into its regional constituencies should not be lost.  Nor indeed, should criticism be limited to the EU. In the UK, the central Government takes revenues from London/South East and creates a weird kind of ‘dependency culture’ by distributing it elsewhere in the UK. This unproductive and damaging (to all) type of Government only works as long as there is enough social and cultural cohesion to keep it going.

Unfortunately, there really isn’t this type of cohesion between the average Greek and German. The EU ‘state’ has certainly not supplanted the ultimate reality or cultural perspective of these respective populations. Nor has the transfer of economic wealth proved particularly productive in changing population’s primary motives. Greeks still think of themselves as, err, Greeks and Germans as Germans. Lastly, since when did adherence to ‘scientific’ EU metrics on deficit reduction and debt/GDP ratios change the political framework of Europe.

It strikes me that political unions are usually made organically or through violence, rather than through the application of discredited philosophy. If we get fiscal union with the creation of a 'Eurobond', than I suspect the campaign for the Deutschmark will follow in a few years.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Housing and the US Economic Outlook




Ok, the US housing market still looks like it is bouncing along the bottom, but does this mean that US consumption spending will remain weak? I suspect the picture is mixed and consumer spending growth will remain weak as a consequence. However, real estate is less important to the US then in, say the UK. Moreover, quantitative easing and economic growth has caused other US Household Assets to rise. There is more to the US economy than housing!


Firstly, this week saw yet more weak data on existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors. You can read the report linked here of which the key conclusion is that the inventory of existing homes is 3.72m. This number is higher than the inventory in 2008 and current existing home sales levels are implying that the months supply of homes is at 9.3 months when the long term average is closer to 6-7months.


Secondly, according to Corelogic report on shadow inventory which is linked here...

In addition to the current shadow inventory supply, there are nearly 2 million current negative equity loans that are more than 50 percent “upside down” that will likely become shadow supply in the near future

...and this implies even more pressure on the housing market.


Real Estate not as Important to US Net Household Wealth Anymore


However, the picture is not so bleak for US consumption growth. I decided to take a look at the portion of net US Household Wealth that is being taken up by real estate...

Real Estate % of Net Worth19861987198819891990
36.8%37.3%37.3%36.9%37.1%
19911992199319941995
35.0%34.6%33.7%33.9%31.7%
19961997199819992000
31.0%29.2%28.7%27.7%31.5%
20012002200320042005
34.9%39.2%37.9%39.0%40.7%
20062007200820092010
39.0%36.3%38.2%34.8%32.3%
Q1 2011
31.2%




...and it is not hard to see that the percentage of US Household Net Worth held in Real Estate has declined in recent years from the peak in 2005. What is also noticeable is that the ratio declines noticeably in the 1990's and, I suspect, this is largely to do with strong economic growth coupled with rising stock market evaluations. Following the 'dot-com' recession, interest rates were reduced significantly leading to the switch into the next asset class boom.

However, the overall key to economic growth is Net Household Worth and this...

Net Worth (bns)19861987198819891990
15,83616,90218,45220,18420,516
19911992199319941995
22,07623,03924,40325,19327,889
19961997199819992000
29,94733,53837,48342,54342,688
20012002200320042005
42,47741,23247,13952,62258,936
20062007200820092010
64,14764,16951,37054,08457,114
Q1 2011
58,058




...is still growing. Although, note that it is still below the levels set in 2005!

All of which, leads me to believe that there will be no 'double-dip' but that the growth outlook leaks to be moderate, at best. There is more to the US Economy than housing.